All good points. Two comments, applicable only to the USA (sic), which confound me when I read about surveys like this. (Again, my comments are applicable only to the USA):
1. Re biking. In Portland (Oregon), which has done so much to provide supportive infrastructure for biking, use of bikes has GONE DOWN. G**gle Portland Bureau of Transportation, "Portland Bicycle Counts 2022." And before you say "This is a temporary thing, due to the pandemic," note that the trend started before Covid.
2. Re small cars. I have owned two Smarts (technically, smarts). I love them. Deeply flawed in many ways (I could go on...) but a true Tiny Urban Runabout. And yet Daimler (now Mercedes) could hardly give them away in the USA. Why?
My point is not to lobby for more cars, good Lord no. I hope (American) society moves towards micromobility and other mobility solutions. But as AG points out, the gap between INTENTION and ACTION is very broad here, and I do not know how to bridge it. I think I have seen surveys like this for four decades now, and in the USA (yes, it is different in Europe!) they seem to always, always fall short.
When opinions change over time, it's always good to wonder how much is the same people changing their minds vs new people being added. I wonder how much of Portland's downtrend is simply it's status as a popular transplant city - a bunch of car drivers moving in - plus the fact that it's a small enough city that driving everywhere is not a bad option in terms of speed and parking. Reduce street parking to discourage people from driving downtown and some of the newcomers with cars (like me!) might be compelled to bike more.
The other recent trend happening in Portland is crime and it highlights that bike infrastructure isn't just bike lakes lanes, but also storage. I would rather bike than drive downtown so I wouldn't have to deal with car parking if I felt like there was a safe place to keep my bike
Wild about Portland! Good spot. I googled "Portland Bicycle Counts 2022" like Glenn suggested and a local news report from March <https://www.kptv.com/2023/03/17/number-cyclists-portland-down-mid-2000s-levels-study-says/> also suggested crime/safety as a reason, though would obviously be good to see some data on that. And yes, intention vs. implementation is a big gap for sure.
Good hypothesis re crime, or at least the perception of crime? I will get in trouble here for relying on a stereotype that people who identify as female are more wary of crime, but the stats for Portland show not only a decline in bike use but a decline in the proportion who identify as female. If this group is especially worried about crime, then that supports your crime hypothesis.
All good points. Two comments, applicable only to the USA (sic), which confound me when I read about surveys like this. (Again, my comments are applicable only to the USA):
1. Re biking. In Portland (Oregon), which has done so much to provide supportive infrastructure for biking, use of bikes has GONE DOWN. G**gle Portland Bureau of Transportation, "Portland Bicycle Counts 2022." And before you say "This is a temporary thing, due to the pandemic," note that the trend started before Covid.
2. Re small cars. I have owned two Smarts (technically, smarts). I love them. Deeply flawed in many ways (I could go on...) but a true Tiny Urban Runabout. And yet Daimler (now Mercedes) could hardly give them away in the USA. Why?
My point is not to lobby for more cars, good Lord no. I hope (American) society moves towards micromobility and other mobility solutions. But as AG points out, the gap between INTENTION and ACTION is very broad here, and I do not know how to bridge it. I think I have seen surveys like this for four decades now, and in the USA (yes, it is different in Europe!) they seem to always, always fall short.
When opinions change over time, it's always good to wonder how much is the same people changing their minds vs new people being added. I wonder how much of Portland's downtrend is simply it's status as a popular transplant city - a bunch of car drivers moving in - plus the fact that it's a small enough city that driving everywhere is not a bad option in terms of speed and parking. Reduce street parking to discourage people from driving downtown and some of the newcomers with cars (like me!) might be compelled to bike more.
The other recent trend happening in Portland is crime and it highlights that bike infrastructure isn't just bike lakes lanes, but also storage. I would rather bike than drive downtown so I wouldn't have to deal with car parking if I felt like there was a safe place to keep my bike
Wild about Portland! Good spot. I googled "Portland Bicycle Counts 2022" like Glenn suggested and a local news report from March <https://www.kptv.com/2023/03/17/number-cyclists-portland-down-mid-2000s-levels-study-says/> also suggested crime/safety as a reason, though would obviously be good to see some data on that. And yes, intention vs. implementation is a big gap for sure.
Good hypothesis re crime, or at least the perception of crime? I will get in trouble here for relying on a stereotype that people who identify as female are more wary of crime, but the stats for Portland show not only a decline in bike use but a decline in the proportion who identify as female. If this group is especially worried about crime, then that supports your crime hypothesis.